Aznar's FAES points to "dolphin" Illa

Every leader has a period of time to manage, which marks their career and legacy. In a meeting with students from the Ramon Llull University moderated by Santi Vila and with Íñigo Urkullu as his guest, Artur Mas lamented on Tuesday how difficult it was for him to become president of the Generalitat, only to find himself faced with a discouraging outlook of recession, cuts, and austerity. Indeed, each moment favors a different type of leadership. Salvador Illa accompanied Miquel Iceta during one of the worst periods for the PSC (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), divided by the independence process, and became Minister of Health as a liaison between his party and Pedro Sánchez, but a pandemic elevated him to such a position that his return to Catalonia allowed him to compete for the presidency of the Generalitat. This week marks one year since those crucial elections, and the Faes (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party), José María Aznar's think tank, has named Illa as Pedro Sánchez's "dolphin."

The scenario of the PSOE leader's succession was buried after the famous five days of April 2024, and even more so when the president made clear his intention to run again. Faes's accusations against Illa only seek to further destabilize the Socialists just as the mobile phone messages between Sánchez and José Luis Ábalos are surfacing, in which the Prime Minister is criticizing some of his ministers. Many things could have happened between now and the opening of this succession melon. The only certain thing is that right now Illa is a pillar for Sánchez, so it makes sense for Faes to identify him as a target. In its latest bulletin, this foundation describes the PSC leader as a camouflaged separatist, even more dangerous than those who are openly pro-independence.

It's just been a year since the Catalan elections that led to Illa's government. The main interpretation of the result was that it certified the end of the independence process, since for the first time in many years there was no pro-independence majority in the Parliament, and governing was only possible with an alliance that would break the bloc that had dominated politics in Catalonia. A year later, this trend appears to be consolidating, despite the fact that Illa governs in a minority and has failed to pass his first budget. But the absence of a viable alternative strengthens the position of the PSC.

Puigdemont's return could mean he spends a few days in prison.

First, the pardons, then the amnesty (though not yet fully implemented), and the agreements with ERC and Junts have allowed Sánchez to achieve overwhelming results in Catalonia, even beyond the fringes of socialism. Added to this is the strategic disorientation of the independence movement, which has gradually shed its rhetoric about unilateralism or promises of a referendum to embrace pragmatism, albeit with a more bitter tone than in the rest of Spain in the case of Carles Puigdemont's deputies in Congress. According to the latest CEO survey, support for independence is at an all-time low in Catalonia: 37%.

Both Junts and ERC maintain their leadership of the independence process. The Republicans have just emerged from a deeply divided congress, while Puigdemont must combine a narrative of relentless demands on the Socialists with agreements that allow him, for example, to place like-minded individuals in bodies dependent on the central government from which he can exert his influence.

Junts is also still waiting for Puigdemont's return. The amnesty law could be validated by the Constitutional Court this summer, which would allow him to return, but at the risk of a short prison term of a few days, which the former president does not even want to consider at this time. If he were to return, Judge Pablo Llarena would summon him to testify and order his imprisonment while transferring the case to the Second Chamber of the Supreme Court, that of Manuel Marchena, which has submitted a request to the European Court of Justice regarding the application of the amnesty. Although that response has not yet arrived, Puigdemont could not be kept in prison for long, as his fundamental rights would be violated, so he would be released pending the CJEU's ruling. These procedures could take only a few days, and the former president, for now, is not willing to suffer the consequences. In any case, Junts are increasingly convinced that they will continue negotiations with the PSOE, even if the relationship is sometimes strained, since an election could leave them without the valuable key they currently hold.

But it's one thing to impose constraints on Sánchez, who gives Puigdemont considerable power, and another to support Illa, his rival in Junts' main objective, which is to regain the Catalan government. Proof that Puigdemont is unwilling to reach agreements with the PSC is this week's refusal to sign the National Pact for Language, with justifications that have nothing to do with an agreement supported by all kinds of entities. Junts didn't want to present Illa with a photo of unity on an issue like this. Jordi Pujol's presence at the event also sends a very revealing message about the different direction the party has taken under Puigdemont.

The Faes believes that Illa treats nationalism with "homeopathic doses of its own virus."

For this reason, ERC and the Commons are emerging as the only option to support the current president. At the same time, it is the factor preventing him from forging his own policy distinct from that of his predecessor, Pere Aragonès. If anything has been criticized about the previous ERC government, it is its inaction when it comes to making decisions on thorny issues. Illa promised to address them, as in the case of the airport expansion. But first, he needs the Republicans to support financial items in Parliament, without which the administrative machinery would be seriously affected.

Even if Illa doesn't want it, the focus of his mandate is on the specific financing, which is part of the agreement with ERC for his investiture. This agreement must be finalized in the signing of an agreement between the central and Catalan governments before June 30th. This agreement will entail the creation of a tax agency for the Generalitat, with increasing autonomy. When Mas went to the Moncloa Palace in 2012 to ask Mariano Rajoy for a fiscal pact and received a no for an answer, the head of the Executive argued before the president that he wouldn't dismantle the Tax Agency because it's the only thing that works well in Spain. In any case, Illa's pact with ERC establishes that personal income tax should be collected from Catalonia by 2026, something that will be difficult to achieve given the lack of human and technological resources.

The Faes Foundation knows that this debate will begin to gain attention in the coming months, as regional elections like those in Andalusia approach. Sánchez has convened the Conference of Presidents on June 6 in Barcelona, ​​and the PP leaders are already heating up the debate on funding. In its newsletter, titled "Illa and His Outburst," the foundation speaks of a "bribe" and criticizes the Socialists for maintaining 21 "embassies" abroad. The independence movement used to give them an almost "diplomatic" importance, but the PSC maintains that they promote Catalan culture and economy in other countries and that Andalusia also has 16, for example. The Faes (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) describes the members of the PSC government as "kind normalizers" who owe "their seats to yesterday's coup plotters" and describes the "ibuprofen" administered by Illa as "the old recipe for treating nationalism with homeopathic doses of its own virus," despite Aznar's history of similar agreements with the Catalan nationalists.

New paragraph When the 'procés' is a given

The conversation between Artur Mas and Íñigo Urkullu in Barcelona on Tuesday, moderated by Santi Vila, focused on their experiences as politicians rather than the current situation, at the request of both guests. Both discussed how their political calling was awakened or how they dealt with moments when they encountered attitudes driven by envy, unbridled ambition, or hatred. Urkullu admitted to being politically active since adolescence, while Mas admitted that his interest came later and that today he maintains that beyond politics, "there is life." Both were key players in the period of the independence movement, but curiously, the word "procés" was practically absent. Mas referred to that period on several occasions, but avoided being very explicit about the other political actors and the decisions that were made. Urkullu , who tried to stop the unilateral declaration of independence while Carles Puigdemont was president, did not say a word about that period.